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Posted at 1:15 PM EST.

1:00 PM EST. This is another game that will get largely ignored today because it’s about as meaningless as any on the board today but we a great opportunity to capitalize with the better team at a price. Fairfield is in fifth place in the MAAC and cannot catch fourth place Iona with this being its final game of the regular season. What’s noteworthy about that is it is senior day in Connecticut and for these smaller schools in smaller conferences, that’s a very big deal. Senior Tyler Nelson is Fairfield’s best player by a country mile. Without him, this team would very likely be in last place in the MAAC. As he goes, so does the Stags but again, it’s senior night, which means Nelson’s friends and family will make the six-hour drive from his home town of Bradford, Maine to the campus in Connecticut. That has the Stags best player focusing on other things beside basketball. Many teams get blown out on senior day because of all the distractions and again, we cannot overstate enough how Nelson is Fairfield’s engine. The Stags played the 243rd ranked non-conference strength of schedule (SOS) while Monmouth played the 43rd ranked non-conference SOS.

In its non-conference sked, Monmouth hung with Kentucky, UConn and Seton Hall before losing all three. They also took a very good Pennsylvania team to four OT’s before losing that one too. The Monmouth Hawks have six losses this season by three points or less but what this market sees is an 11-18 record and a 7-10 conference record. Monmouth’s record is so misleading. We are going to get a tremendous price on this team to win the MAAC tourney and we are not going to miss that bet either, as they are more than capable of beating anyone in this conference. The Hawks have won three of their last four games while barely breaking a sweat in two of those, destroying both St. Peter’s and Rider. This is the right time to peak and the Hawks could peak themselves right into an automatic bid. For this game, however, they are playing great ball after paying their dues that made them battle tested to peak at this time.

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