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Posted at 2:00 PM EST.

8:30 PM EST. Georgia is a 13-9 team getting points against a team that is 8-15 and that alone should raise some red flags. We’ve said it before and it’s worth repeating that the market puts far too much emphasis on wins and losses while we put more emphasis on the ingredients. It is for that reason that we’re able to find such great value in this sport. That does not guarantee anything but we’re very confident in the process and trust that we’re going with the best of it.

Georgia does have some nice wins this year, like its 12-point win over then #23 Florida one week ago and its OT win against then #21 St. Mary’s in non-conference play but there are also more than a few disturbing losses and games too. Georgia has a 10-point loss to a brutal UMass team. They have nine and three-point victories respectively over South Carolina Upstate and Texas A&M CC. They lost by seven to Auburn and by 15 to Mississippi State. The loss of JJ Fraser has been catastrophic for the Bulldogs, as they had nobody to step into the PG position to create offense. The Bulldogs usually go long stretches every game with no offense and that puts them in a hole that is tough to get out of. Not only have the Dawgs played an easier schedule than Vandy but they are the inferior team that is not getting enough points here. 

Vandy is the best seven games under .500 team in the country. They were projected to be a threat in the SEC but it’s not worked out for them and we could not care less. What we care about is value and the Commodores offer it up in spades as a short priced favorite at home against this beatable squad. Remember, Vandy went dancing last year and it returned much of their production this year. Coach Bryce Drew was also able to add some depth to his roster with three freshmen and a transfer joining the team. Having experienced scorers like Matthew Fisher-Davis, Riley LaChance and Jeff Roberson was supposed to make this team a threat every game but some bad bounces in close games put them behind the eight ball. The Commodores are dead last in the SEC but have played Tennessee, TCU, Kentucky and Auburn in succession over their last four games. They won once but easily could have won three, as they lost to Kentucky in OT and lost to the Vols by just five in a nail biter. That’s the story of the Commodores season but they’ve played the #1 ranked strength of schedule in the country and those stern tests will very likely pay off for them and us here.   

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