Posted at 11:10 AM EST

7:00 PM EST. Last Wednesday most of the country faded the Minutemen when Dayton came calling and when it was over, they were all ripping up their tickets. One week later and the Minutemen go from a 6½-pooch to a -6½-point favorite and therein lies the overreaction. While Dayton is obviously a better team than the Hawks, there is also a big difference from being expected to lose to expecting to win. UMass finds itself in those contrasting roles here and we wouldn’t trust them for a second. The Minutemen have been favored a mere five times this season in 18 games and they have covered twice. They played a bunch of marshmallows in their out-of-conference slate and had some close call against some of them, which included a six-point home victory over North Carolina A&T and a seven-point victory, also at home, against Wagner.

St. Joe’s is coming off a four-point home loss to Richmond, which doesn’t do anything to booster its credentials but it’s actually better than it seems. You see, the Hawks lost by just four points after shooting a mere 34% from the floor and missing nine free throws too. Bad shooting days happen but this market usually sees results and nothing else. That the Hawks didn’t lose by 20 after such a poor shooting performance reveals how good their defense played and also how determined they were. The Hawks have also had to transition after they lost junior point guard Shavar Newkirk for the year on December 30. St. Joe’s has four games under their belt since that devastating blow but don’t count them out. Phil Martelli is in his 22nd year at St. Joe’s and knows exactly how to get the best out of every player. The Hawks went 28-8 last year and while they lost some serious talent, Martelli has restocked the lineup with an athletic four-man group that is getting better with each passing game. The Hawks are very likely going to shoot much better here than they did against the Spiders and should that come to pass and they play with the same intensity level, they’ll have a great chance to not only cover but to win outright. We’re calling the upset but will take the points. 

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