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Posted at 2:30 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

N.Y. Mets over St. Louis

7:45 PM EST. We’ll get to the starting pitchers in a moment, but let's start with the lifeless Cardinal bats, which were totally limp in their weekend series with the White Sox. They lost two of three, scoring just nine runs total across those contests. The Cards have now lost four of five, and they’ll send Kyle Gibson (RHP - STL) out to stop the bleeding.

On the surface, Gibson looks like he might be able to do just that, as he brings a 3.79 surface ERA into this game, but his xERA is a much more bloated 5.58. Across his six starts (38 IP), Gibson has 29 Ks and 14 BBs, and both his K-rate and his BB-rate are trending in the wrong direction compared to last season. Also, both his swing-and-miss rate and his first-pitch strike rate are down to just 56.6%. Even if Gibson does pitch well today, his team is in touch as they sit dead last in average, 27th in on-base percentage, and 29th in slugging versus left-handed pitching.

Sean Manaea (LHP - NYM) takes his seventh turn of the season after he did not factor into the decision versus the Cubs last Tuesday. In that game, he gave up one run on three hits over five innings while striking out three. It wasn’t the strongest showing of the season for Manaea, but he was still working his stuff, generating a 36% whiff rate and a 28% called and swinging strike rate (CSW%). This matchup today is tailor-made for Manaea, and as an underdog, there is great value in him to potentially post his best start of the season and for us to cash this ticket.

Sherwood

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