Posted at 1:30 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle    BET365 +170 Sportsinteraction    888Sport  

Brandon Pfaadt to Record the Win +170

9:40 PM EST. Steven Matz (LHP - STL) picked up a win in his last start, but it came against the Marlins, who are 2-11, so we aren’t going to put too much stock in such an effort. However, we’ll note that despite playing a weak lineup that can’t get out of its own way, Matz generated just 10 swinging strikes in 85 pitches. Through his 10.1 innings pitched this season, Matz has a weak 6:3 strikeout-to-ball ratio, and his 1.74 surface ERA is not sustainable considering his xERA is 4.63.

We find Brandon Pfaadt (RHP - ARI) and the Diamondbacks under the radar after a slow start for both as the defending National League champions are 6-7. As for Pfaadt, his quality underlying numbers suggest better surface results are coming for him. While it’s early, his ERA is an ugly 5.06, but Pfaadt’s xERA is a much more respectable 3.29, and he sports a very tidy 13:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio through his first 10.2 innings, which spans two starts. Further, Pfaadt has been unlucky with a bloated Batting Average of Balls in Play (BABIP) of .387, but he’s missing bats with an elite swing-and-miss rate of 15.5%.

In his last outing, a no-decision, Pfaadt induced a career-high 20 swinging strikes in the 87 pitches he threw across 5.2 innings. Pfaadt is a workhorse, and last year for the Snakes, he started 18 games and went at least five innings in 10 starts, and less than four only three times. This season, Pfaadt went at least five in both of his starts, and there is no reason to believe he won’t be given every opportunity to do the same here tonight, giving tremendous value on him to pick up the win.

Sherwood

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------