Posted at 1:30 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle  +118   BET365 +115 Sportsinteraction +115  888Sport  +115

Washington +118 over Oakland

9:40 PM EST. Paul Blackburn (RHP - OAK) might be the most overvalued starting pitcher on the board today, as he’s all smoke and mirrors, but we’ll get to that in a minute. Last year, Blackburn was sidelined for two months with a fingernail issue, but the healthy version of him was hampered by a horrible hit rate that his xERA confirms his results should've been even worse.

Blackburn has been very lucky here in 2024, as he’s struck out just seven in his 13 innings pitched and while the sample size is small, he sports a 100% strand rate, which is as lucky as one can get, and a .154 Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP), which is also very fortunate. Oh, by the way, Blackburn’s strikeout rate of 4.8K/9 is the weakest of anyone being trotted out for a start tonight.

If you don't get many whiffs (and Blackburn is not), you either need pinpoint control or a heavy groundball tilt. Blackburn no longer has either, and you no longer should speculate on how bad he is. Dude is bad, but the numbers this year don’t show it. That’ll change, so get on the fade wagon before it does.

Nevermind Jake Irvin (RHP - WAS) who is not the target here; however, we’ll note that as lucky as Blackburn has been, Irving has been unlucky in the early going with his BABIP sitting at an inflated .355, while his strand rate is well below average at 58.8%. In what is AT BEST, a 50/50 proposition, the value on the Nationals here in Oakland is tremendous.

Sherwood

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