Posted at 10:45 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +132 BET365 +125  Sportsinteraction  +125  888Sport  +125

Miami +132 over N.Y. Yankees

6:05 PM EST. Now that the Marlins are off the mattress (1-9), we can get behind them with a little more confidence. This is not a .100 team, thus an obvious correction is forthcoming. Furthermore, the pitching matchup heavily favors the Marlins, thus, when Jesus Luzardo (LHP - MIA) is taking back a price like this and/or Nestor Cortes (LHP  - NYY) is spotting a tag like this, we must step in.

Luzardo actually reached new inning pitched heights last year, as he avoided the IL for the first time in years. His skills held up remarkably well too. He racked up whiffs with a wicked slider (22.2% swing and miss rate) and very effective change-up (17.5%). His walk rate took another step forward, and his velocity uptick held all year. Luzardo has 13 K’s in 10 innings this year and is quickly approaching high-end starting pitcher status. The same cannot be said for Cortes.

Nestor Cortes will be looking to bounce back from two subpar efforts to start the season, as he’s allowed seven earned runs in just 10 frames. Last year, Cortes started the season late due to a hamstring injury, and then he missed two months with a rotator cuff strain. He was back for one August start, then returned to the IL for the rest of 2023. Don’t ignore the signs of a pitcher breaking down. Even an injury mulligan is not really a comfort, as bad shoulders can linger. He posted two fine seasons before the injury, but there's newfound risk heading into 2024 and his performance is not suggesting anything good is on the horizon.

Sherwood

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