Posted at 10:45 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle BET365 +195   Sportsinteraction    888Sport  

Mitch Keller +195 to record the Win

6:40 PM EST. We’re targeting the Tigers as fade material and we prefer to play Mitch Keller (RHP - PIT) to get the win as opposed to spotting -125 with Pittsburgh or spotting -1½ runs +160 on the run-line. Despite being 6-3, the Tigers are seeing BB pellets at the plate with a combined BA of .209 after nine games. Six of Detroit’s nine games were against the weak pitching staffs of the White Sox and A’s. Chicago’s Guaranteed Rate Field is one of the best hitting parks in the majors, where Detroit one 1-0 and 3-2 and two of their three wins there. They were also losers on Saturday and Sunday in Detroit against the then 1-7 Oakland Athletics.

When playing this pitcher to win prop, we want our pitcher to be durable and Keller checks that box. Dude went five full in every start last year except one. He’s pitched five innings or more in both his starts this year. Keller has had two below average starts this year, which has led to a 6.55 ERA but we’re not going to put too much emphasis on two starts to begin the year. Dude broke out in the first half of last year, though his Ks and ground balls fell back and luck factors were unkind in final months. Keller incorporated a pitch mix change (new cutter, fewer four-seamers and curves), which led to a swing and miss uptick and he threw more strikes, lending credence to his BB% gains. Solid overall skill growth makes him a decent mid-rotation arm, assuming volume repeats. He’ll now face a Tigers’ team that looks very unattractive. Finally, Keller had some of the most drastic home/road splits you will ever see last year. On the road he was poor with a 5.35 ERA and 1.41 WHIP, while at home he had a 2.90 ERA and 1.06 WHIP.

Reese Olson (RHP - DET) tossed 5.2 scoreless innings but did not factor into the decision in last Monday's 10-inning win over the Mets. He allowed three hits and two walks, while striking out three. The Mets are hitting a combined .191 but because Olson held them scoreless, he’s overvalued.  Last year, Olson went 5-7 with a 3.98/4.00 ERA/xERA split in 104 innings. Rookie was inconsistent early after his June call-up and ended his MLB debut season on a plus note—6 earned runs, 35/13 K/BB over 36 IP in his final six starts. However, his second half was aided by hit % luck. His control is still a work-in-progress and his xHR/F is a red flag. The Pirates are playing great ball and so we’re going to roll the dice here with this solid value bet on Keller to pick up his first W of the year.

Sherwood

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