Posted at 11:45 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle  -1½ +235 BET365 -½ +215 Sportsinteraction N/A  888Sport -1½ +215

Colorado -1½ +235 over Tampa Bay

3:10 PM EST. These two clubs have split the first two games of this series, with the Rockies taking the opener on Friday night, 10-7, and the Rays bouncing back yesterday with an 8-6 win. However, it’s worth noting that Tampa was down 6-1 in that game before scoring seven unanswered runs to steal the victory. Today, the Rays will send Ryan Pepiot (RHP - TB) for his second start of the season after he was blasted by the Rangers for six earned runs in 5.2 innings and took the loss in a 9-3 decision. Pepiot has some hype behind him coming into the season with a sparkling 2.14 ERA in 2023, but that performance was smoke and mirrors, as his xERA was a much less impressive 3.99. Those numbers could have been worse, too, had it not been for Pepiot posting a 99.2% strand rate and a Batting Average of Balls in Play (BABIP) of just .189; both numbers suggest that Pepiot was very lucky.

Meanwhile, the Rockies will send Dakota Hudson (RHP - COL) out for his second turn of the season after he was a tough-luck loser in game one versus the Cubs on Monday in which he didn’t give up an earned run but was still tagged with the loss, as Colorado could not plate a run in that 5-0 defeat. Hudson went 5.1 innings and allowed just three baserunners, but a throwing error by Nolan Jones led to Christopher Morel scoring an inside-the-park home run that scored three runs for the Cubs. Hudson is never going to flame guys, but his elite ground ball rate should keep him in games.

With this game being played in the high altitude in Denver and with a total in the double digits, rather than play the Rockies to win outright on the money line, we’re going to attack the reverse run line and back Colorado to win this game by two runs at the inflated price you see posted.

Sherwood

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