Posted at 2:00 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle  +109   BET365 +100 Sportsinteraction   +100  888Sport +100

Pittsburgh +109 over Baltimore

4:12 PM EST. The Orioles are 4-2 after taking two of three from both the Angels and the Royals (big deal).  All six of Baltimore’s games were at home and now they’ll take the road for the first time to face the upstart Pirates. Pittsburgh has played 7 road games to start the year and they are 6-1 after beating Miami 4 times in Miami and then taking two of three in Washington. That’s seven road games to start the year. Obviously the Pirates are not going to keep winning at this pace but their 6-1 record is no fluke either. They are hitting extremely well and that’s after leading the Grapefruit League in many offensive categories this past spring.

Grayson Rodriguez (RHP - BAL) is very good. He’s on a lot of breakout lists among people in the know and we had him pegged as a breakout target too. His skills were better with each passing month last year and that jump in skills was directly correlated with steadily improving command: 12%, 15%, 20% K-BB%. His raw stuff is top-tier (13.5% swing and miss rate in second half), and it came with tons of first-pitch strikes (66%). If he can reduce the hard contact he allowed against lefties in 2023 (.482 Slg vL), Rodriguez has the tools to be a front-line starter. Rodriguez struck out nine batters and earned the win Saturday against the Angels after he allowed one run on four hits and one walk over six innings. That said, this wager is not about fading Rodriguez.

Say hello to Jared Jones (RHP - PIT). If he’s available in your fantasy league, scoop him up immediately if not sooner. This kid has filthy stuff and might just be the best pitching prospect in the game.  In his first major league start last week, Jones earned the win over the Marlins allowing three runs on three hits and two walks while striking out 10 over 5.2 innings.

Don’t just take our word for it. PitchingBot thinks that Jones’ fastball is tied with Bobby Miller’s fastball for the best in baseball this year. They’re each a hair above reigning fastball king Spencer Strider. Stuff+ disagrees with PitchingBot; it thinks that Jones has the best fastball in baseball, all by himself, by a mile. It gives him a 162 mark; Nick Pivetta comes in second at 140. The top 10 is dotted with the likes of Miller, Strider, Grayson Rodriguez, and Cole Ragans, and yet Jones stands alone at number 1.

You can’t make a starting pitcher exclusively out of fastballs, but Jones’s slider is a worthy counterpart to his overbearing heater. It sits in the upper 80s, with more gyro movement than sweep. That works to his benefit because it’s such a good pitch that he uses it heavily against both righties and lefties. Gyro sliders fare better against opposite-handed hitters than the sweeping variety.  At the risk of over-quoting pitch models, PitchingBot thinks that Jones has the sixth-best slider so far this year. Stuff+ think it’s the 14th-best. The combination of velocity and break makes it play well against everyone, regardless of handedness. This kid has a fearsome game, the Pirates look frisky as hell and now we get both, at home as a dog. Watch this kid pitch if you get the chance.

Sherwood

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