Posted at 2:00 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

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MLB Player Prop

Hunter Greene to Record the Win +200

6:40 PM EST. The Reds are -125 today or thereabouts, but rather than play them on the run line -1½, we are going to target their starting pitcher, Hunter Greene (RHP - CIN), to pick up the win at the plus price you see posted. Greene will make his second start today after he took a tough-luck no-decision last time out, where he gave up two runs over 4.2 innings while striking out seven. Last season, in his 22 starts, Greene went at least five innings 15 times.

This is a potentially tough spot for Jose Quintana (LHP - NYM) and the Mets, as they played a doubleheader yesterday after sitting around for three days, as their series with the Tigers was nearly washed out. This will be Quintana’s second turn after he lost his first turn against the Brewers, in which he gave up six hits and two earned runs over just 4.2 innings last Friday. Quintana started that game on a positive note but faded as the game went on, and the Brewers chased him in the fifth inning. Quintana is 35 years old, and he is coming off an injury-filled 2023 where he started just 13 games because of a stress fracture in his rib that required bone graft surgery.

Quintana finished up last year with a 3.57 ERA, but his xERA was a much more bloated 4.55, while he also saw dips in the ground ball rate and his swing and miss rate from a serviceable 10.6% to a puny 8.9%. While it was just one start, Quintana posted a 3.5% swing and miss rate versus the Brewers in game one. Dude’s skills are eroding in front of our eyes, but the Mets will continue to roll Quintana out because they are paying him $13 million a year, and he’s going to pitch until he’s physically unable to do so, which could come sooner rather than later considering just how far he’s fallen since his prime in Chicago.

Sherwood

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