Posted at 11:00 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle  -102 BET365 -105 Sportsinteraction -105   888Sport -105

Arizona -102 over N.Y. Yankees

3:40 PM EST. In terms of pure value, we see no reason that the Yabkees should be favored in Arizona in a pitching matchup that does not favor the Yanks. The bats don’t favor the Yankees either. Arizona is tops in the majors in hitting after the first week with a combined BA of .305. They are also second in On Base Percentage and second in SLG%. The Yanks rank middle of the pack in all three of the aforementioned offensive categories.

Furthermore, Arizona, who went to the World Series last year in case you forgot, is a strong defensive unit. The Snakes led the majors in outfield defensive runs prevented (DRP), 19.7, with the most range defense added runs. Carroll and Thomas were fourth and fifth, respectively, in DRP in the league.

In six games, Arizona already has a run differential of +22. Only the 150 projected wins Dodgers are better. The Yanks run differential is +6.

Last year, Merrill Kelly (RHP - ARI) posted a near-identical repeat to his 2022 breakout, save for three missed starts (calf). This version came with more strikeouts as his swing and miss rate reached new heights, and his xBB% tempers concerns over the BB% spike. Hard to see another step up—xERA continues to hint at potential pullback—but bankable skills makes him a dependable mid-rotation stabilizer and he was very good in his first start of the year. Kelly struck out eight and allowed one run on three hits and no walks over 6.2 innings Friday in the Diamondbacks' 7-3 win over the Rockies.

On paper, Carlos Rodon appeared to have a decent season debut against the Astronauts. Rodon yielded a run on five hits and three walks over 4.1 innings. He struck out four and did not factor in the decision in a 7-1 Yanks’ win. He posted a 2.08 ERA, however, his xERA of 6.08 was one of the worst of all starters in the first week of the season. We’re not going to put a lot of emphasis on one start but it’s not just one game. Rodon is coming off a horrible year in which he missed the first half with left forearm and back strains and then missed  another two weeks with a bum hamstring. When he did pitch, nothing clicked. Complete skills collapse—plus terrible strand rate luck—yielded horrific results. He’s not shown signs of recovery, he was awful in his first start and now he and the Yanks are favored on the road because why? Diamondbacks are a play.

Sherwood

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