Posted at 9:00 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +118BET365 +120 Sportsinteraction +110 888Sport +115

Philadelphia -1½ over Cincinnati

Best Odds: +120 at BET365 

4:06 PM EST. Hopes are high for the Phillies this season, a team that nearly found themselves atop the National League just over 5 months ago, but it never came to be. Hoping to avenge a season lost, Philadelphia opened their 2024 campaign with a blockbuster matchup, but they weren't as ready as their opponent. Atlanta outperformed their rival at Citizens Bank Park, winning the series 2-1 despite a raucous Philly crowd.  In those two losses and one recent loss against Cincinnati, Philadelphia already showed many of its poor tendencies, characteristics that have begun to define a program that's a perennial "close, but no cigar." We saw another Aaron Nola clunker, a guy that's become more and more volatile as one of their featured starters, their bats stumbled against the more elite pitchers, and their bullpen was a real issue. But just because they started in a volatile fashion doesn't mean they're not an elite roster, one that we expect to ascend as the season goes on.

That starts with Zack Wheeler. Wheeler and his Phillies lost 9-3 in their home opener, but Atlanta's scoring only revved up after a sharp 6 innings from their ace. Wheeler picked up where he left after another steady year in 2023, permitting just 5 hits, 0 runs, and striking out 5 to boot in his first start. His arsenal kept the eager visitors on their toes. but it didn't last. Five members of their deluxe bullpen, ahem, allowed 9 runs on 8 hits in just three innings following Wheeler's display.

Unfortunately that's what we've come to expect from the Phillies when at their worst, but we also can't forget what an exceptional program they've become. One series doesn't change that, something oddsmakers appear to be underestimating in this case. Preseason rankings had the Phillies as a top-rated team, some even ranked them #1 overall, and that's mostly because of the power hitting and depth of their roster. With an elite pitcher on the mound on top of it, we've seen them perform at a scary-good level in the recent past. On Wednesday, Wheeler and his squad will have a nice opportunity to run it back and earn a W for their star thrower, and against a much less capable opponent.

Frankie Motas hasn't played much meaningful baseball the last few seasons; only 1.1 innings in 2023, to be exact, but the 31-year old journeyman got the nod to lead the Athletics on opening day. That vote of confidence resulted in a nice 8-2 win over the Nationals, a dream-start for the embattled pitcher. After a shoulder injury sidelined him last year, Montas has expressed optimism and excitement to start the back half of his career in Cincinnati, and he showed it on opening day. He was virtually flawless, permitting just 4 hits and no runs over 6 innings. Of course, the Nationals aren't expected to be a particularly talented offense this year, not like the Phillies, but it was a promising first showing from Montas. The right-hander looked far better than his clumsy form in spring training, but that also doesn't mean that one game completely alters our perception of the aging pitcher. Are you sensing a theme here?

We're not rooting against Frankie Montas, but he's objectively been through a ton of adversity. Multiple transitions, like 4 teams in 3 years, can't be good for an injury prone guy who spiked in 2019 but really hasn't been exceptional since. Then there's Zack Wheeler, a steady hand for a home team that's due to positively regress, a squad whose bats lit up the City of Brotherly Love last night, overwhelming the Reds in a 9-4 win. We like that momentum, and we love their form when Wheeler's at the helm. Montas, on the other hand, could just as easily slip back into Spring training form. Tiny sample sizes don't mean a thing to our wallets. We'll take the far better team at a discount, at home and armed with one of the best throwers in the majors. Good luck, Cincy.

Farley

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