Posted at 3:00 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle  +141 BET365 +130 Sportsinteraction +130   888Sport +130

Kansas City +141 over Baltimore

6:50 PM EST. Michael Wacha (RHP - KC) signed a two-year $32-million deal with the Royals in the offseason, which on the surface seems a little spendy, but a closer look shows that Wacha was a respectable starter the last couple of seasons, which when betting an underdog, is what we are looking for. Last year in San Diego, Wacha posted an xERA of 3.89 across 24 starts and saw an uptick in his swing-and-miss rate (10.7%) and his first-pitch strike rate (61.7%) to serviceable levels. Wacha is not going to flame anyone anymore, but his bread and butter, his change-up was graded the best in baseball in 2023.

Just who in the blue hell is Dean Kremer (RHP - BAL) to be priced in this range against the Royals, who got off the schneid yesterday and posted their first win of the season while potting 11 runs against the Twins? K.C. can’t wait to get back to the ballpark today and Kremer looks very hittable considering the 4.93 xERA he posted last season, which also saw an uptick in his walk rate. Expectations are high in Baltimore for the first time in a long time, as the Orioles are not only expected to contend for the AL East but they are supposed to make a World Series run. Those high expectations have presented us with an opportunity to fade the O’s with arguably their weakest starter on the mound, spotting an inflated price. When favored, Kremer is going to be on the radar as fade material. This is our first crack at him, and we’re not going to miss it.

Sherwood

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