Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle  +121 BET365 +115 Sportsinteraction +115   888Sport +115

Milwaukee +121 over N.Y. Mets

1:40 PM EST. The Mets are 0-2 out of the gate while the Brewers are 2-0 and we see no reason to not get behind the Crew again here. The Mets will come in with some weight on their shoulders while Milwaukee will not. Give the Crew an edge in the starting matchup as well.

Enter Tylor Megill (RHP - NYM), who went 9-8 with a 4.70/5.03 ERA/xERA split in 126 innings for these same Mets. He stayed healthy but a tough June stretch sent him to AAA for over a month. Megill’s skills took a clear step back while his xERA jumped more than two runs. His Ks and whiffs collapsed while his BB% and xBB% ballooned. Pay little attention to his strong Sept (9 ER in 5 games starters), as it was a hit%/strand% mirage. Megill favored in this range for the 0-2 Mets is a very decent fade.

Colin Rea (RHP - MIL) went 6-6 with a 4.57/4.32 ERA/xERA split in 124 frames last year. His see-saw season saw him optioned and recalled four times. However, he also posted perfectly acceptable, league-average or slightly better skills across the board thanks to a beguiling six-pitch mix. If you squint to ignore the elevated HR/F, 2nd half surges in swing and miss rate, xBB%, K-BB% are pretty dang decent so no matter how you break it down, Rea is a much better option taking back a tag than Megill is spotting one. 

Sherwood

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