Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle  +103 BET365 -110 Sportsinteraction -105   888Sport -110

Pittsburgh +103 over Miami

4:10 PM EST. Why not Pittsburgh? They have jumped out to a 2-0 start with both wins coming over the Marlins and now the Marlins are 0-2 to start the year with both games being in Miami. That first win can be very illusive. No question that Pittsburgh can’t wait to play again after scoring 13 runs combined while belting out 19 hits in the first two games. That was against two of Miami’s better starters but today, the Pirates take a step down in class when facing Ryan Weathers (LHP - MIA).

Weathers went 1-8 last year with a 6.53/5.78 ERA/xERA split in 58 innings for San Diego/Miami. Once-pedigreed prospect (7th overall pick in 2018) began 2023 in the starting rotation, but spent most of the season in the minors. Weathers now owns a lifetime 5.88/5.14 ERA/xERA split with a weak 8% K-BB% in 156 MLB innings. Weathers is just 24 so it's probably too soon to give up on him (especially as a lefty), but shoddy peripherals offer little reason to believe he's close to figuring it out. As the chalk, he’s pure fade material.

If you don’t know Jared Jones (RHP - PIT) by now, you should. He started showing gnarly stuff last year and it’s been even more prominent this spring, going 16.1 scoreless innings this spring. He works a four-seamer/slider/cutter mix and flashes a functional curveball and a developing changeup. He wasn’t on the 40-man roster until very late but he’s clearly one of Pittsburgh’s five best starting pitchers right now. There is always a risk when getting behind a rookie making his first start but it comes on the road with a small Miami fan base in attendance, which is perfect. He might not go long, as the Pirates will monitor this prized possession but regardless, we want to bet on the stuff. Pittsburgh’s chances of winning today appear to be better than Pittsburgh’s chances. 

Sherwood

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