Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle -1½ +122 BET365 -1½ +110 Sportsinteraction -1½ +105   888Sport -1½ +110

Cincinnati -1½ +122 over Washington

4:10 PM EST. Hunter Greene’s (RHP - CIN) hip pain started in early June of last year, which landed him on IL two weeks later, and kept him out of action for two months—2nd half slides in swing and miss rate and velocity were very likely related. However, he posted a 3.54 xERA, 9% BB%, 33% K%, and a 15.1% swing and miss rate in 11 games prior to his injury. Greene’s stable xBB%, his career 24% K-BB% v lefties are good signs. This dude can pitch but frankly, it wouldn’t matter to us who was pitching for the Reds today, as this is a straight fade against Patrick Corbin (LHP - WAS).

Patrick Corbin will be 35-years-old in July and has the highest ERA/xERA of any qualified starter since the start of the 2020 season. He is in the final season of a six-year, $140 million contract. You might want to read that again because it’s not a typo. Corbin is starting for the Nationals not because he earned a job as one of the best five starters that the Nationals employ but because they are paying him 140M this year and there is no chance in hell that they are going to pay him that type of money to sit on the bench or to hold a clipboard and count heads on the bus, although that’s where he should be.

These days, we laud starting pitchers who burn innings, but do you really want them burned to the ground? Last year, Corbin’s skills eroded further, truly a bad sign as a guy hits his mid-30s, and things only got worse as the season progressed. xERA portends better, but that's a very low bar. Surely, at some point won't they just quit giving him all those innings? Highly unlikely because they would rather lose a baseball game than pay Corbin that type of cheddar to sit and watch. Corbin’s swing and miss rate last year was a very weak 7% so it’s going to be batting practice out there again today in one of the best hitter parks in the biz.

Sherwood

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