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Posted at 11:30 AM EST.

7:05 PM EST. If the Yanks win here and clinch home field for the Wild Card game, we’ll be the first to congratulate them. However, if we’re sticking to playing value, this game has to be considered one of the best value plays of the year so far. The number here is hugely inflated because the Yanks are on the verge of clinching home-field for the Wild Card game while the Rays are out of it. Secondly, the Yanks are at home and lastly, they are the New York Yankees. Win or lose, the price on the Rays here is bordering on lunacy.

Idle since beating the Orioles with six shutout innings on Sept. 16, which ending a rough 0-2 stretch with a 5.40 ERA over seven games, Jordan Montgomery gets the call here for New York. Montgomery is definitely a work in progress. His 13% swing and miss rate over his first 15 starts was strong as well, but his minor league K-rates were lower and it has dropped to 9% over his last three. Once could conclude that MLB hitters have studied him now. His fly-ball rate is extreme, and his hr/f shows we have not yet seen the extent of the damage it could do to his ERA. Jordan Montgomery is not only a big risk at this price, he’s the second best starter in this game. Incidentally, he faced the Rays in his April 12 debut and is 0-1 with a 7.32 in two games against them this season.

Blake Snell is coming off a strong outing vs. the Cubs in which he threw seven scoreless innings and surrendered two hits. Snell is unbeaten over his last 10 starts since July 24 and he’s 2-1 versus the Yanks with a 2.73 in seven starts (over his career) allowing one or no earned runs four times. Snell is salvaging his season late in the year. After a rough first half (4.85 ERA, 1.63 WHIP), Snell has turned things around completely post-All-Star break with a 1.01 WHIP, 3.21/3.79 ERA/xERA split and a 13% swing and miss rate. Snell is in great form and is very worth getting behind at this crazy price.

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