Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 12:35 PM EST.
7:10 PM EST. Yes indeed folks, the Tigers have bottomed out, just like we predicted in our season win total wager (under) before the season began. The Tigers have cleaned house and the result is a bunch of September call-ups and previous bench players getting some playing time. That’s not a bad thing, as these young players trying to make a name for themselves bring enthusiasm, energy and focus to the park whether it’s April or September. The Tigers whacked the South Side yesterday 12-0 to earn a split of the four game series in which they scored 26 runs over the four games. That’s not bad at all and now the Tigers will get another shot a struggling pitcher here.
Jharel Cotton has a weak BB/K split of 52/99 in 124 frames. That’s a horrible ratio that has led to a horrible 1.48 WHIP this season and an even worse WHIP of 1.57 over his last 10 starts. Cotton also has a 51% first-pitch strike rate over that span. Rarely can a pitcher succeed at this level when he’s constantly behind in the count. Cotton’s underlying numbers are right in line with his actual numbers so there are no pending improvements on the way. He has an ERA/xERA of 5.81/5.83. He has a horrible 22%/32% dominant start/disaster start split and those numbers are even worse when you consider that he pitchers half his games at a hitters park. Pitching for a team that plays poorly on the road most of the time, Jharel Cotton and the A’s cannot be favored on the road against Buck Farmer and the Tigers.
Buck Farmer’s 6.62 ERA has him grossly undervalued here. He’s another great example of why we don’t buy surface stats and he’s also a great example of how surface stats influence the market. While there are no guarantees of anything in one baseball game, we’re here to assure you that Buck Farmer is a quality pitcher that is miles ahead of Jharel Cotton in their progress. Farmer’s poor surface stats are the result of noting but pure bad fortune. In 35 innings, Farmer has struck out 38 batters and walked 13. That’s 9.7 K’s/9. That has the full support of his 13% swing and miss rate. In his last start, Farmer’s groundball rate was 56%. He tallied a 3.26 xERA, 8.3 K’s/9 and a 47% groundball rate in 465 minor league innings (mostly Triple-A) as a starter around numerous brief MLB stints. Since 2013, Farmer has thrown 206.1 minor league innings and posted a 3.05 ERA and a 9.3 K’s/9. Strikeouts and groundball % is the starting point of a very playable skill set and with an xERA of 3.11 in his last start and an overall xERA of 4.19 over 114 MLB innings, Buck Farmer is trending the right way. He and the Tigers should be favored here. That’s value.
Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks.
DETROIT +104 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.08)