Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 2:30 PM EST.
7:05 PM EST. The Blue Jays have three wins in their past 10 games. They continue to make bad pitchers look good and mediocre one’s look like aces. They’ll now face a pitcher with unimpressive surface stats that is extremely under the radar. Buck Farmer receives a decent ranking by allowing three earned runs in 12 away innings (2.25 ERA), as the righthander has struck out 14 hitters on the road. On the year, Farmer has 28 K’s in 26 innings with a skill supported 13% swing and miss rate. He has also only issued eight walks, he has an 80% first-pitch strike rate and a 4.25 xERA, which is three runs lower than his actual ERA. The Blue Jays are a bottom-five offense vs. RHP (.721 OPS-26th).
Marcus Stroman left his last outing with a right elbow contusion so there’s that. Stroman is a very good pitcher but he’s not unbeatable by any stretch, especially at this time of year pitching for free-falling Jays. Stroman’s being hurt by high hr/f, the same issue that hurt him in 2016. He doesn’t give up many fly balls but when he does, many of them clear the fence. Another factor that keeps Stroman’s ERA in check is that he doesn’t walk many batters. He’s gotten his swing and miss rate up to league average but that’s not dominating. With a profile that features few walks and plenty of ground balls, Stroman’s numbers won’t suffer too much when fortune runs against him. At 26, so there’s still a bit of room for growth and finding a more consistent strikeout pitch would boost him into the top tier of AL starters. For now, though, he remains a solid mid-tier option but not one that is worth getting behind at a price like this because the Jays lose too often.
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Detroit +199 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.98)