Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 11:40 AM EST.
8:10 PM EST. Zach Davies is a hit and miss starter that will bring his 3.91/4.58 ERA/xERA into this game. There are some good signs in Davies’ profile and there are some bad ones too. He's struck out only 15 percent of the batters he's faced, down from 20 percent in 2016 and he has reached double digit swinging strikes just twice in his last 12 starts. He displayed stellar control a season ago but has been allowing more walks so far in 2017 for a variety of reasons. He's throwing fewer first pitch strikes, a lower percentage of strikes overall, and he's getting batters to swing at fewer pitches out of the strike zone (30% in 2016, 26% this year). That’s the bad. The good is that Davies’ swinging strikes, ball% and first-pitch strike rate have all risen over his last three games. He’s also doing a nice job of keeping the ball on the ground with a 48% rate. All of that is just a preview into his profile because to us, it means jack for this one start.
Our focus here is that Gio Gonzalez is 9-3 on the road with a 2.91 ERA and he’s 3-0 over his last three starts with a 0.93 ERA (!) The market will love that. Gonzalez also pitches for a team that is leading its division by 15 games. In 26 starts, Gonzalez has lost just five times and comes in with a Kershaw-like 2.40 ERA. At the time of this writing, Milwaukee was favored and we have to question why. We also have to ask why anyone would be interested in spotting a price on Milwaukee with Davies going against the Nationals with Gonzalez going. A large percentage of the bets are coming in on Washington, yet the number is not moving one bit. Eventually, the market will move the number but that’s not relevant either. Recognizing a spot like this is important to long term success. It can save you a bet if you were enticed to bet Washington or win you a bet if you trust that Milwaukee is “supposed to” win this game even if they don’t. The line screams Milwaukee and we always want to be on the same side as the books when something looks as fishy as this one. We’ve also written about Gonzalez’s extreme luck recently but we’ll elaborate more on that when it’s called for. Right now, this wager is about not falling into a trap and being on the same side as the books. We’ll also go for the kill and spot an extra half run with a big take-back.
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MILWAUKEE -1½ +183 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.66)