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Posted at 10:15 AM EST.

4:10 PM EST. The market’s fascination with the Cubs continues and we’re going to try and take advantage again because Chicago has no right being favored here. Jake Arietta’s overall skill set isn’t bad but it’s a far cry from his 2014-15 heyday. Arietta has walked batters at a roughly MLB-average rate, which is right in line with his overall control sub-indicators (Ball%, first-pitch strike rate). Though his K-rate has held steady, the drop in swings and misses suggests a decline in strikeouts is probably on the horizon (7.5 K’s/9). The sharp decrease in velocity since 2015 is alarming (2015: 94.6 mph; 2016: 93.7 mph; 2017: 92.0 mph). That has led to more hard contact and a drop in grounders has contributed to HR's suddenly becoming an issue for him. Left-handed batters have hit Arrieta hard in 2017 (9 HR in 225 PA). He has allowed a lifetime .687 OPS vs. LHB. It appears that Arrieta has made an adjustment in response to the decreased velocity loss and precipitous hike in HR allowed. If this new extreme sinker usage sticks, it could help him keep the ball in the yard, but the reluctance to throw his best swing-and-miss offerings (change-up: 17% swing & miss; slider: 15%; curve: 14%) figures to result in a subpar K-rate. Arietta’s ERA over his last three starts is 2.20, which is going to attract a lot of attention here but an 88% strand rate over that span is the reason his ERA was so low. His xERA over his last three starts is 4.41 and at this park, runners get stranded less.

Zach Godley is on a nice roll by missing plenty of bats and showing improved control. The Cubs own a .822 OPS in the second half, but their second-half gains against right-handed pitching (a problem in the first half) have been very much fueled by a lucky hit rate. The Cubs’ typical lineup vs. RHPs is lefty-laden and Godley handles LHBs much better than the average right-hander. Godley’s skills are firmly electric with 11.8 K’s/9, 2.6 BB’s/9 and a 53% groundball rate. His excellent 15% swing and miss rate is supported by his high level of strikeouts too. Did we mention that the Snakes are 38-21 at home? Wrong side favored. 

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