BEST LINES: Pinnacle +108 Bet365 +100 SportsInteraction +100 5DIMES +100

Posted at 12:30 PM EST.

7:10 PM EST. Jose Urena has upgraded his control by doing a better job of getting ahead in the count and pounding the zone. He has thrown his best pitch more often (slider: 13% swing and miss rate) but hasn’t been able to find a way to translate his raw stuff, including a 96 mph fastball and decent change-up (12% swing and miss rate) into more strikeouts. Urena has just 79 K’s in 114 frames but he has struck out 21 over his past 28 innings so the increase in K’s suggest he’s trending the right way in that department. Urena has good stuff and is at the right age (25) to turn that good stuff into better numbers. He’s also been very good at home with a ERA/xERA split of 3.49/3.74.

Jonathan Gray comes in with a 4.94 overall ERA but his road ERA (strangely enough) is an unsightly 6.67. Last year was much of the same for Gray and so, too, was his rookie season. Last year, one could blame his first half hr/f bad luck or his 2nd half unlucky hit% or his equally unlucky full year strand percentage for his elevated ERA. Actually, one could blame those things in his rookie season too and this year as well. See where we’re going here? Perhaps it’s not all bad luck that ails Gray. This dude keeps giving up runs in bunches and that’s because the movement on his pitches are weak. Yeah he throws hard and yeah he’s never lived up to his promise but his very weak 5% swing and miss rate this year does not even come close to supporting his 50 K’s in 51 innings. What Jonathan Gray is really good at is giving up hard hit balls that are thrown right down the middle of the plate. Furthermore, when the Rockies play in a pitcher’s park, they often produce the same results as teams like Oakland and Cincinnati on the road. Wrong side favored.

Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks.