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Posted at 10:35 AM EST.

8:10 PM EST. Zach Davies got his ERA under 4.00 with a strong finish in 2016 that included a 3.22 ERA. This year, on the surface, Davies hasn’t regressed or progressed much but underneath the hood, there is plenty of regression. Davies walk/K ratio is horrible with 41 walks issued and just 88 K’s over 131 innings. His swinging strike rate has progressively dipped in each month from 11.3% in April to just 7% in July and to 5% in his last start. What is going to stick out to the betting market is Davies’ 2.12 ERA over his last three starts but it’s all a mirage, as he was the beneficiary of extreme luck. A quick reference to his xERA of 4.77 over those last three starts assures us of that. Because we’re in the buy low/sell high business, an opportunity to sell awaits here and we’re not going to miss out. The other reason you’ll pay to back the Brewers here is because the Twinkies will start a rookie that not many have ever heard of.

At the trade deadline, the Twins acquired RHP Zack Littell and LHP Dietrich Enns from New York Yankees in exchange for LHP Jaime Garcia. It’s unusual to be able to acquire a four-pitch lefty prospect with a great track record of success for a mid-rotation starter rental, but Enns qualifies. Owner of a career 1.87 ERA in the minors and a 1.81 ERA in parts of two seasons at Triple-A, Enns just keeps getting guys out and it’s pretty easy to see why. He’s got a fastball that sits in the low 90s with quality movement and command and will mix in a slider, curve, and change that are all at least fringe-average pitches. With some deception in his motion, minor-league batters just haven’t been able to pick the ball up and drive it. He’s obviously not going to be this good in the majors, but some of it should still work, even if he ultimately ends up paring down and focusing on one or two of the off-speed pitches. The downside is that Enns is already 26, owing to a string of injuries, including Tommy John surgery in 2014. Until his return in 2015, he was mostly used as a reliever, and he’s shown both durability problems over the course of the season and in-game stamina problems. Enns might’ve been called up down the stretch last year, but instead he was moved to relief and then shut down for innings management. A poorly timed shoulder injury this April caused him to miss out on being part of the cavalcade of Yankees going through the back of the rotation but now that he’s back healthy and pitching well, they’ve moved on to acquiring more solid, proven veteran options. He’s a very good fit for what the Twins like in a pitcher and he’s a good fit for us in attacking overvalued starters like Zach Davies is here.

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