BEST LINES: Pinnacle +123 Bet365 +115 SportsInteraction +125 5DIMES +120

Posted at 10:00 AM EST.

Mike Leake comes in with a 7-10 record to go along with a shiny 3.34 ERA but we’re not buying it. For one, Leake doesn't miss a lot of bats, so he'll never be a major strikeout source. As a result, he’s at the mercy of BABIP. Leake’s skills have remained consistent throughout his career. He’s going to put the ball in play and he’s going to throw strikes. What happens when the balls are in play is where the luck factor takes over. With the EXACT same skills as he has this year, Leake posted a 4.69 ERA last year in 30 starts for the Cards. His strand rate last year was 66% and this year it is 78% and there lies the difference between a good and bad year on paper. Leake’s xERA last year (4.41) is the within a couple of percentage points of this year’s 4.43 mark. So, Leake will go out there again today and there will be base-runners. If his strand rate is high, he’ll have a decent pitching line and if it’s not or if it’s normal, he’ll likely give up between four and six runs. Mike Leake has appeal when taking back a tag but very little appeal when spotting one.

San Diego signing Trevor Cahill for $1.75 million this offseason was meant to provide a little stability to a questionable rotation but few thought that the former top prospect would suddenly ramp up his strikeout rate in such startling fashion while transitioning back to the rotation. Cahill’s career as a starter was punctuated by groundball after groundball, mediated by a perfectly normal strikeout rate for such a sinker-heavy starter. But this guy, injuries and all, turned out to be the best pitcher in an otherwise-terrible Padres rotation thanks to his regular use of five different pitches. The 29-year-old’s unexpected renaissance campaign has gone relatively unnoticed in San Diego. Over 11 starts, Cahill averaged nearly 11 strikeouts per nine innings while posting an xERA that ranked 11th out of 171 pitchers with 60-plus innings. Fortunately for us, he’s gotten a bit unlucky and he now pitches for Kansas City as an underpriced starter. Cahill owns a .329 BABIP, which is nearly 40 points higher than his career mark. It may seem counterintuitive to upgrade a starting pitcher leaving San Diego, but Cahill should benefit from the Royals' stellar defense. The underlying metrics suggest that he’s vastly outperformed his surface statistics and is due for a rebound. Trevor Cahill has an elite profile of 55% grounders, 17% line-drives and just 27% fly-balls. He has struck out 77 batters in 70 innings this season. Not only should Trevor Cahill’s fortunes improve in Kansas City but he’s back from the dead and now there’s a legitimate buying opportunity here too. Pencil us in for that.

Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks.