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Posted at 11:40 AM EST.

7:10 PM EST. Value comes from public perception, popularity and surface stats to create a number that is either too high or too low and we have a great example of that here. By game time, don’t be surprised to see the Rangers favored here so we’re going to wait to pull the trigger until then because there is a chance we’ll get the Mets at an even better price.  

On paper, Texas would be the play, as Andrew Cashner is 7-8 with a 3.36 ERA after 18 starts while New York’s Chris Flexen has made just two starts this year and both were beyond ugly. Flexen did not make it out of the third inning in both of his starts, as he was tagged for 13 hits and eight earned runs combined for an ERA of 12.00, a WHIP of 3.00 and an oppBA of .464. The betting public will see the Rangers taking back a price and likely jump all over it, which is likely an unforeseen mistake.

You see, Andrew Cashner is living off of luck this season. In 107 innings, Cashner has a nauseating BB/K split of 43/55. He also has the widest gap between ERA (3.36) and xERA (5.72) among qualified starters. Cashner’s luck extends beyond just Batting Average on Ball in Play (BABIP). His strand rate of 78% is well above league average. His 7.5% hr/f rate is the lowest among all starters today. His 6% swing and miss rate is the lowest of his career. Cashner has been able to dance around trouble this entire season and if he sustains it again here, so be it but the oddsmakers have posted a number that suggests his luck is about to run out.

There is no getting around Chris Flexen’s miserable start but two starts does not tell us much at all. A rookie’s major-league debut is one of the most unpredictable events in sports, as some thrive and some are overwhelmed when facing or playing on the same team as players they grew up watching. Chris Flexen had a rough debut in San Diego and then had to start his second game in Colorado. With his feet wet, we’re not putting any emphasis on his six innings of MLB service. Prior to being called up, Flexen was outstanding this season with very promising trends. His strikeout rate increased. His above-average control returned while he became more difficult to hit. His stuff is above-average, highlighted by his fastball that sits between 90-93 mph and touches 95. It features outstanding movement and is never straight. Flexen mixes in a hard cutter and a big-bending curveball. The excitement of being called up has worn off. Flexen can now go back to the things that got him here and again, the oddsmakers like his chances of success. We do too.

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