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Posted at 12:30 PM EST. 

7:05 PM EST. The Reds have been competitive all year at Great American Ballpark with a 25-28 record while the Cardinals are 22-29 on the road. Cinci has also played some of their best ball this year against St. Louis by winning seven of the 10 games they have played against one another. Furthermore, the Cardinals bats have gone cold again with 12 runs scored in their last six games and five of those runs came in one game.

The familiar Mike Leake (30 + starts in five straight years) starts against the unfamiliar Asher Wojciechowski and there you have the setup and the reason the Cardinals are favored here. Leake comes in with a 7-9 record to go along with a shiny 3.29 ERA but we’re not guying it. For one, Leake doesn't miss a lot of bats, so he'll never be a major strikeout source. As a result, he’s at the mercy of BABIP. Leake’s skills have remained consistent throughout his career. He’s going to put the ball in play and he’s going to throw strikes. What happens when the balls are in play is where the luck factor takes over. With the EXACT same skills as he has this year, Leake posted a 4.69 ERA last year in 30 starts for the Cards. His strand rate last year was 66% and this year it is 78% and there lies the difference between a good and bad year on paper. Leake’s xERA last year (4.41) is the within a couple of percentage points of this year’s 4.43 mark. So, Leake will go out there again today and there will be base-runners. If his strand rate is high, he’ll have a decent pitching line and if it’s not or if it’s normal, he’ll likely give up between four and six runs. At this park, Leake’s chances of balls in play being hit right at people diminish.

Asher Wojciechowski has appeared in 12 games for the Reds this season with eight of those 12 appearances being out of the ‘pen. He enters this start with an ERA of 4.50 after 34 frames. Wojciechowski struggled as an early season replacement starter, yet has been effective in a multiple-inning relief role. He has allowed only two earned runs in 16.2 innings of relief with a remarkable BB/K split of 5/20. He has a big, strong, and durable frame and can fire his fastball into the 91-95 mph range. He generally throws strikes with his commandable fastball and counters it with a solid slider and average change-up. Wojciechowski keeps the ball low in the zone and induces a fair amount of groundballs. At Louisville this season, Wojciechowski started five games and struck out 35 batters in 30 innings with an oppBA of .204. Yes indeed, Wojciechowski brings risk but he’s capable, he’s getting a price here and while he’s not as reliable as Leake, he has better stuff. Add it all up and the Cardinals have no business being road chalk here.

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