BEST LINES: Pinnacle +106 Bet365 -110 SportsInteraction +105 5DIMES +102

Posted at 12:45 PM EST. 

8:10 PM EST. Ariel Miranda is not the target here although we do like his recent form. Miranda has 24 K’s over his last 19 innings with an elite 15% swing and miss rate. He does bring risk at this park because his fly-ball rate is high but we’re not going to concern ourselves with that. The Mariners are playing well while the Rangers are not and so this wager is all about fading Andrew Cashner and the team he pitches for.

Peripherals on an ominous four-year slide and it's across the board. We’re discussing Andrew Cashner, thus, the fade on him remains intact. Cashner’s walks are up and his K’s are down. In 101 innings, Cashner has a vile BB/K split of 43/51. Over his last five starts covering 27 frames, Cashner has walked 10 and struck out 15. What sticks out, however, is his ERA, which stands at 3.48 after 17 starts. Cashner’s ERA over his last five starts is 2.36. Andrew Cashner has some of the worst skills in the game but his ERA does not reflect that. That sets up this selling opportunity. Cashner’s xERA is 5.94. His swing strike rate is 6% and was 2% in his last start. A combination of all the luck driven stats working in his favor has kept his ERA under 3.50. Once things begin to normalize and they always do, his ERA will skyrocket. This is a weak and beatable pitcher playing for a weak and beatable team.

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