BEST LINES: Pinnacle -104 Bet365 -110 SportsInteraction +100 5DIMES -105

Posted at 12:00 PM EST. 

7:10 PM EST. We could get into how hot the Royals are with 10 wins in their last 11 games but we won’t bore you with the details. Just know that Kansas City is the hottest team in baseball right now. We could also get into how Ubaldo Jimenez slides into the stay away from category due to his recent form (8.28 ERA in his last five games started) with disaster starts in 50% of his starts this season. It actually gets worse too. Allowing 34 earned runs in 36.1 home innings illustrates just how bad Ubaldo Jimenez is. It’s not just recently either. Jimenez has been horrible for three years and counting.

Danny Duffy improved his skills in July with more first-pitch strikes (69%) and fewer walks, which have contributed to three solid starts over his last five games (3.62 ERA). While his strikeouts (7 K’s/9) have dropped in 2017, the southpaw continues to miss bats (16% swing and miss rate) with his slider. Danny Duffy has an ERA of 3.56 while Jimenez’s ERA is 6.93. Again, Kansas City is the hottest team in the game. This market recognizes ERA in a big way and puts heavy influence on it. Why then, have the oddsmakers made Baltimore favored here? According to the numbers, current form and especially the starters, the O’s have no business being the chalk. This is a CLEAR enticement on the Royals and that’s the ONLY reason we’re backing the O’s here. We promise you that the line is not an oversight. We’re almost 100% sure that once the general public gets a hold of this line, Kansas City will be favored by game time. We’ll therefore wait until later in the day to pull the trigger and will update this around dinner time.

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