BEST LINES: Pinnacle -1½ +166 Bet365 -1½ +165 SportsInteraction -1½ +145 5DIMES -1½ +165

Posted at 10:30 AM EST. 

1:05 PM EST. In game one of this series, Toronto was a -165 favorite over Parker Bridwell and didn’t come close to winning. Yesterday, the Jays were in the -140 range over Yusmeiro Petit and blew a 3-0 and 5-3 lead before losing 6-5. Now, against the Angels worst starter, Jesse Chavez, the Jays are the smallest price of the three games, which prompts us to make a move.

With a 35%/28%/37% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rates as a starter, Chavez has very little chance of success at this park. In fact, with that profile and pedestrian stuff on his best day, Chavez has very little chance of success at any park. This is a 33-year-old journeyman that has been moved from the rotation to the bullpen more than a few times his entire career. Chavez has never fared well for an extended period and his skills are getting worse. With an ERA/xERA split of 5.35/5.72 and a 3% swing and miss rate over his last four starts, he’s not well suited to pitch in a MLB rotation. He'll likely continue to toil in pitching's No Man's Land. Chavez is a swingman who's more valuable to his big league club than he is to anyone else. He should be in the +150 range and not in the +113 range.

32-year-old Cesar Valdez has made two starts with the Blue Jays and we absolutely love his mound presence and the ease he appears to be pitching with. Valdez doesn't have dominant stuff but he throws lots of pitches, including a fastball that barely reaches 90 mph and a change-up, a sinker and a slider. His fastball has a heavy sinking action that helps keep his home runs on the low side. He also doesn't hurt himself by issuing walks, so his WHIP has been quite good in recent years. With batters being unfamiliar with his repertoire, he’s going to provide value for a few starts and he’ll now face an Angels’ lineup that can be tamed on their best day. The Blue Jays stock was high to begin this series after they defeated Oakland four in a row but today it has sunk below where it should be.

Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks