Kansas City @ BOSTON
Kansas City +126 over BOSTON

BEST LINES: Pinnacle +126 Bet365 +120 SportsInteraction +130 5DIMES +125

Posted at 11:20 AM EST. 

7:10 PM EST. Eduardo Rodriguez was on the DL from June 1 to July 17 and was pulled after 5.1 innings in both those starts. He surrendered 12 hits, walked six and whiffed 14 over those 10.2 frames and also allowed a jack in both starts. He was not on a pitch count either, as he threw 111 and 99 pitches respectively. At the time of the injury, Boston manager John Farrell hedged on the "three to four weeks" timeline, indicating that Rodriguez would resume throwing when he and the team felt he was ready. This dislocation was perceived to be less severe than the previous two on the same right knee, since he was able to continue pitching in his June 1 start (not pitching well, yielding four HR, but still pitching just the same). Rodriguez received a second opinion from Dr. James Andrews, which revealed no ligament damage. However, he could require surgery at some point, which would cost him five or six months. The point is that we don’t know how this affects him mentally. Is he being as aggressive? Power comes from the legs and one has to wonder if Rodriguez is throwing the same knowing that his knee could give out at any time. What we know is that his velocity is down from 93.2 MPH to 92.7 MPH in his two starts since returning. A starter without a groundball lean profile is almost a risk that’s what we have here in Rodriguez’s overall groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate of 36%/21%/43%. Eduardo Rodriguez is a good pitcher. 29 other teams would love to have him but his effectiveness at this moment is in question and he’s not the best starter in this matchup.

San Diego signing Cahill for $1.75 million this offseason was meant to provide a little stability to a questionable rotation but few thought that the former top prospect would suddenly ramp up his strikeout rate in such startling fashion while transitioning back to the rotation. We certainly didn’t. Cahill’s career as a starter was punctuated by groundball after groundball, mediated by a perfectly normal strikeout rate for such a sinker-heavy starter. But this guy, injuries and all, turned out to be the best pitcher in an otherwise-terrible Padres rotation thanks to his regular use of five different pitches. The 29-year-old’s unexpected renaissance campaign has gone relatively unnoticed in San Diego. Over 11 starts, Cahill averaged nearly 11 strikeouts per nine innings while posting an xERA that ranks 11th out of 171 pitchers with 60-plus innings. Fortunately for us, he’s gotten a bit unlucky and he comes to Kansas City underpriced. Cahill owns a .329 BABIP, which is nearly 40 points higher than his career mark. It may seem counterintuitive to upgrade a starting pitcher leaving San Diego, but Cahill should benefit from the Royals' stellar defense. The underlying metrics suggest that he’s vastly outperformed his surface statistics and is due for a rebound. Cahill’s fortunes should improve in Kansas City and now there’s a legitimate buying opportunity here. Pencil us in for that.

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Our Pick

Kansas City +126 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.52)

Chicago -103 over Boston