BEST LINES: Pinnacle -1½ +132 Bet365 -1½ +130 SportsInteraction -1½ +130 5DIMES -1½ +130

Posted at 11:30 AM EST. 

10:10 PM EST. With 2,200+ career innings of a 4.02 ERA and 1.26 WHIP, you'd have been pretty safe to expect little from Ervin Santana this season. So naturally, the 34-year-old boasts a 3.26 ERA and 1.15 WHIP through 20 starts in 2017. However, after 13 starts, he had a 2.20 ERA and a 0.89 ERA so things have been heading south and they are not about to stop. You see, Santana's actually posting some of the worst skills of his career. Pay attention the near two-run gap between xERA (5.06) and ERA. Santana's benefited from a unsustainable low hit rate of 23% and high strand rate of 80%. Santana's posting fewer Ks than ever before and it corresponds with a drop in his swing and miss rate. He's been unable to sustain 2016's control improvement and his underlying first-pitch strike rate and Ball% remain mediocre. Santana's current pace simply isn't sustainable. The last starter to post a sub-3.50 ERA with this poor command was was Clay Buchholz in 2010 and he subsequently fell off the map. With fewer strikeouts, more walks, and an insane amount of luck, it's time to cash out and sell Santana, as things will get much worse from here.

We get the Dodgers are a discount rate here because they are sending out Clayton Kershaw’s replacement here. Brock Stewart will make his season debut but not his major-league debut and he’s a kid to watch because he’s wickedly talented. Last year, Brock went 2-2 with a 5.79 ERA in 28 innings for the Dodgers. He rocketed from High-A to majors by June but was sent back to the minors after a lackluster debut. A month later, he returned to a thankless assignment in Coors and hit his groove with a 1.89 ERA in 19 innings. Last year, Stewart was dominating the minors on three levels. He was a college infielder, but was moved to the bullpen upon being selected in the sixth round of the 2014 draft. After one season as a reliever, he was moved to the starting rotation in 2015 before his breakout campaign in 2016. Stewart features a plus 91-96 mph fastball with a hard slider that exhibits cutter action. His best secondary offering is a change-up that flashes plus with late fade and sink. It is an effective neutralizer against left-handed hitters. With good size (6’3” 210 pounds) and a relatively fresh arm, there is some upside here. Stewart has made great progress with pitch sequencing and he already throws consistent strikes and rarely beats himself with walks. While there are a few rough edges to smooth out, there is little left to prove in AAA and now he may just need a chance. This is it.

Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks.