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Posted at 11:30 AM EST. 

10:10 PM EST. Steven Matz has a mere 30 K’s in 44 innings, which means he’s at the mercy of BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play). In his last start, Matz pitched five full at Oakland and allowed three earned runs but was very lucky to escape with that pitching line after allowing nine hits. The start prior, Matz didn’t make it out of the second inning after allowing nine hits and seven runs back in New York to the Rockies. The game before that, Matz struck out one batter and it was the pitcher. Matz has upside but he’s spent more time on the DL over the past two seasons than he has in the rotation and when you’re always a step or two behind the rest of the league, you’re always at a disadvantage. We’ve been fading Matz lately and we’re not about to let up now. Dude is struggling badly and batters are squaring up on him with ease.

Jhoulys Chacin did not have the best start to the 2017 season. In his first start of the year, he gave up nine earned runs against the Dodgers. Chacin gave up another seven runs four starts later at the hands of the Diamondbacks. By the time the baseball season reached the end of April, Chacin was 3-3 with a 5.82 ERA. The threat of him imploding on any given night made him a fade target for many. However, since the beginning of June, the 29-year-old Chacin has produced very different results. If we simply look at Chacin’s season stats, there isn’t a lot that will jump out. However, his monthly splits begin to paint a positive picture. After the first month of the season, Chacin’s ERA was 5.82. That number dropped to 3.00 in June, and it sits at 2.08 in July. Also, his K-rate % has slowly increased each month of the season. Chacin has never been known as a strikeout pitcher, but the production has gradually gotten better over the course of the season.

There are other encouraging trends as well. His soft contact rate is trending upward, and his groundball rate is as high as it’s been since 2011. Add to these factors increased velocity and you have the makings of a more successful pitcher. These are all positive signs but there’s more. It appears that much of Chacin’s success stems from the fact that he’s throwing his slider more than at any point in his career. In April, he was throwing the pitch only 21% of the time. In June and July, that rate has been north of 35%. Chacin’s slider has the highest whiff/swing rate in his arsenal (33.89%), and it’s been his most successful pitch against opposing batters. His curve has produced slightly better results, but he’s thrown it far less often. Jhoulys Chacin has a 1.94/3.01 ERA/xERA at home. The Padres have won his last four starts and they’ve also won six of his last eight starts. Chacin has defeated the Dodgers over that span and did not allow a single run to them and now he’s a dog priced against Steven Matz and the Mets? We buy bargains and this is one of them.

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