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Posted at 3:00 PM EST.

7:15 PM EST. Mike Pelfrey isn’t the target here. Pelfrey is capable of throwing four or five innings of decent ball or he could get knocked out in the first or second inning. We’ll live with whatever Pelfrey deals us today because this bet is all about taking back a big tag against the Royals with the grossly overpriced Jason Vargas on the hill.  

Jason Vargas is 34 years old and has been wallowing away in mediocrity for more than a decade. He somehow found something new this year and comes into this start with a very shiny 3.02 ERA after 18 starts. He was also an All-Star for the first time so the world is smiling upon him. We’re not. Vargas throws 85 MPH on his best day. His swinging strike rate is down from 12% in April to his career norm of 7% over his last five starts. Over his last five starts, Vargas has a 5.86 ERA, a 6.22 xERA and a 1.59 WHIP. The clock has struck midnight on this career stiff and now he’s priced like he’s been pitching like Jon Lester for a decade. He hasn’t. Jason Vargas has three good months in 12 years and now he’s just pitching like himself again. Furthermore, the White Sox offense is top-6 in OBA against LHP for the season (.341) and they have already seen Vargas twice already this season and hit 321 off him in those two starts. This is a massive overlay that must be played.

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