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Posted at 11:15 AM EST.

4:15 PM EST. Notice the early start time. Also notice that the Cardinals defeated the Pirates last night on ESPN’s Sunday Night nationally televised game. We mention that because for bettors across Canada and the United States, that was the only thing to bet on last night and the Cardinals left a good impression. Throw in the Cardinals strong pedigree with that good impression and you’ll pay a bigger price on the Cardinals today than you would have had they not been seen my millions last night. The Cardinals can’t hit and they don’t field very well either so don’t be influenced by last night’s game. They’re also without Dexter Fowler, one of their few offensive catalysts and perhaps their best outfielder.

Brandon Finnegan comes off the 60 DL to make this start. He only started three games back in April so rust could be a factor but we’re not going to worry about that. There’s a good chance that Finnegan throws a strong five innings against a Cardinals’ nine that struggles (.693 OPS-25th) against southpaws. Furthermore, Finnegan was throwing beautifully prior to his injury with 14 K’s in 10 innings and a 14% swing and miss rate. He had a 57% groundball rate too. Finnegan showed good progress in his rehab assignments and if the Reds’ brass trusts he’s ready, so can we. Aside from that, Cinci’s offense is much more dangerous than the Cardinals offense.

Then there’s Michael Wacha. Coming off an injury-riddled 2016 campaign, Michael Wacha looked like he was back to full strength early on, as his ERA stood at 2.74 through seven starts. That seems like a lifetime ago because he’s been among the worst starters in the game since. Over his last six starts, Wacha’s WHIP is 2.12. That’s like pitching with the bases loaded almost every inning. His ERA/xERA split over his last six starts is 7.17/5.89. Wacha is walking batters at a high clip lately (13 BB’s in last 19 innings), which is the first sign of fatigue. A recurrence of a 2014 shoulder issue cost Wacha much of the 2nd half last year and now puts the remainder of his 2017 role in limbo. Impact on his command was the first thing to go last year and we’re seeing the same pattern this year. After July of last year, Wacha was absolutely pummeled and was relegated to the pen. It appears to us that he’s in trouble again so put him high on your fade list. Big time overlay here.    

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