Arizona @ Detroit
Arizona +102 over Detroit

BEST LINES: Pinnacle +102 Bet365 +100 SportsInteraction +105 5DIMES +100

Posted at 12:00 PM EST.

7:10 PM EST. Taijuan Walker comes off the disabled list for this start so he’s been somewhat forgotten about. In 52 innings before his injury on May 19, Walker posted a 3.43/3.23 ERA/xERA split. With 18 walks and 46 K’s in 52 frames, Walker was looking pretty sweet at the time and now he’ll get right back at it. Walker pitched for the Mariners last year and went 8-11 with a 4.22 ERA. Flat feet apparently caused a foot and ankle issue that led to some flat skills in the 2nd half, but his 1st half was a strong continuation of his 2015 growth. Walker has yet to post a full season ERA under 4.00, but xERA says it's there for the taking. He's on the precipice of bigger and better things and we’ll gladly put that to the test here. 

Have you seen the Tigers vomit-inducing bullpen at work this season? If you haven’t, you’ll see them today if you watch this game and you’ll likely see them early too. It wasn't long ago that Jordan Zimmermann was viewed as one of the more reliable starters in the game with a sub-3.25 ERA each season from 2010-14. Fast forward to 2017 and Zimmermann currently sports one of the worst xERAs among active starters with a 5.71 mark through 12 starts (BTW, we warned you about him too). The question is can he rebound or improve? The numbers say NO WAY! Zimmermann’s skills are getting worse. Much worse. Zimmermann was never a big strikeout guy, but his K-rate has plunged into the danger zone and his low swing and miss rate won't bail him out. He's not getting ahead in the count as often and he's throwing fewer strikes in general (Ball%). Ominous signs that Zimmermann's once-pinpoint control might be a thing of the past. His xERA of 5.76 says Zimmermann fully deserves the awful surface stats. His skills confirm this hasn't been bad luck; just bad skills. Zimmermann's decline is bad; we've seen three-year drops in almost every major skill: xERA, groundball rate, control, K-rate, command, first-pitch strike rate and Ball%. That's really hard to do and unfortunately for Zimmermann, it means the unrosterable  numbers aren't going away. The best news however is that we don't owe him $92 million through the 2020 season. The Tigers do and we’ll get to cash in on that many times before they can’t stomach it anymore. Fade.

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Our Pick

Arizona +102 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.04)

Chicago -103 over Boston