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Posted at 11:15 AM EST.

7:10 PM EST, Unfortunately for us, it just so happened that Edison Volquez’s next turn after his no-hitter came against the Pirates. That wager last night was an angle or situational play against Volquez more than anything else so it’s not going to deter us from switching gears and fading the miserable Pirates. After blowing two significant late leads against Baltimore before getting smoked last night, the Pirates looked like a mentally defeated team last night because they are. Furthermore, with a 65-97 over its past 162 games, the Pirates have the worst record in baseball over that span and now they’re favored with Tyler Glasnow on the mound? We don’t think so.

The reason the Pirates are favored is because they’re at home and because Vance Worley is throwing for the Fish. Starting in 2011, Worley has 609 MLB innings over his career. He has a 3.89/4.39 ERA/xERA split and really doesn’t offer up a lot of upside but we couldn’t care less. The Pirates are a defeated team with no momentum that are playing with their heads down while the Marlins are coming on big time. Miami is 9-3 over its past 12 games. They have the third highest OBP and batting average in the league over that span right behind the Astros and Mariners. The Fish easily took the opener of this series last night when they abused a very good starter in Gerrit Cole and they’ll ride that momentum and good form into this game while taking a big step down in class when facing Glasnow.

Glasnow is not what the Pirates were hoping for. Walks have been a major problem, starting with the 2016 season even in the minors. His 2017 results in the majors have been even worse with his first-pitch strike rate dropping eight percentage points. He simply can't walk this many batters and find success at this level. A high hit% and low strand % have also contributed to Glasnow’s misery, but as his xERA and overall skills show, even if we factor in that bad luck out, he's pitching poorly. Glasnow’s WHIP is 1.87 so he’s pitching with two guys on base almost every inning. That’s taxing and now throw in the Marlins speed to make him even more uneasy. Glasnow’s ERA is 6.97 and his xERA is 5.54. We’re not suggesting that Worley is the better pitcher here but he’s not the one spotting a price. Worley throws strikes and will not become unnerved while Glasnow is a mental mess that can’t throw strikes. Worley is also pitching for the vastly superior team and bullpen, thus making the resurgent Marlins a must play here.

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