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Posted at 11:15 AM EST.

9:40 PM EST. The Diamondbacks rotation continues to thrive, sitting with the MLB’s 3rd best staff ERA (3.55), a number that they hope will improve with the expected return of Taijuan Walker in the coming days. Filling in and performing admirably in Walker’s absence has been Randall Delgado. The 27-year-old was once a prospect of some acclaim (#22 on the 2012 top 100), moving to the bullpen after a few unsuccessful stints in the rotation. Over the course of his career, he’s made 51 starts, posting a 4.19 ERA across those 274.7 IP. However, his command against LHB had been in steady decline—with weak ratios in 2014, 2015 and 2016 in recent years. In 42 innings this year, Delgado has posted impressive command ratios against lefties, which in turn has fuelled his 3.24 ERA (3.45 xERA) this season, making it difficult for management to send him back to the bullpen. In fact, manager Torey Lovullo recently expressed the desire to keep him in the rotation so Delgado currently looks like a solid bet to stick around. Delgado has a BB/K split of 7/39 in 42 innings with a 69% first-pitch strike rate and 13% swing and miss rate. Over his last 23 frames, his BB/K split is 3/24. Throw in an increasing groundball rate that is up from 41% in his first three starts to 46% over his last four and everything is trending strongly in the right direction for Delgado. Aside from that, the Snakes are deadly at home with a 24-8 record.

Milwaukee is in first place in the NL Central but we’re putting them high on our fade list for the time being. Plenty of Brewers all got hot at the same time to start the year but their numbers are starting to “normalize” and as a result, the frequent victories are likely going to be frequent losses. Milwaukee strikes out the most of any team in the NL and second most in the league. That does not bode well for them in this series.

Over his last 28 frames, Zach Davies has a BB/K split of 8/14 with a 3.54 ERA. On the year, Davies has struck out 46 batters in 63 innings while walking 24. That reveals weak command. Davies WHIP of 1.55 is dreadful and just asking for trouble. Davies has had some really nice games this season because when he’s on, he keeps hitters off balance with his good pitch mix. However, he’s had lots of disaster starts in his short career and this could be another one. He has not pitched past six full innings even one time this season and hasn’t even made it out of the 6th inning in nine of his 12 starts. His poor durability adds to his risk and so the fade on both the Crew and Davies is on.

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