BEST LINES: Pinnacle +130 Bet365 +130 SportsInteraction +115 5DIMES +125

Posted at 10:30 AM EST. 

3:40 PM EST. Kyle Freeland is not our target here. In fact, it looks like things could turn bumpy soon for Freeland because his success has had more to do with a high strand % and low hr/f than skill. His xERA shows that he's due for a sizable ERA correction, which is going to come but with a 61% groundball rate, we’ll hope he hangs on for at least one more start.

The real target here is fading Yovani Gallardo. Gallardo should not be bet, ever and he certainly cannot be priced in this range either. His early results underscore why that is the case (5.76 ERA, 5.90 xERA, 1.59 WHIP). His underlying skills give no reason for optimism either with a BB/K split of 25/41 in 55 frames and a swing and miss rate of 5%. This is a starter that missed two months with a shoulder injury after a rough April last year but things hardly improved upon his return. Gallardo is posting career-worst command, skills, and xERA, while his first-pitch strike rate of 54% continues to speak to his strained relationship with the strike zone. The pitcher you remember from 2009-12 no longer exists so it's time to move on and fade this stiff whenever possible.

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