BEST LINES: Pinnacle +107 Bet365 +105 SportsInteraction +105 5DIMES +106

Posted at 4:00 PM EST.

7:10 PM EST. The Phillies have scored 21 runs over their last 10 games and have scored two runs or less in seven of those. We could name the 10 starters they faced over that span but we’ll spare you the gory details and just mention that none of the starters they faced are elite or even close to it. Throw Bronson Arroyo, Tim Adleman and Chad Kuhl among the starters that the Phillies made look like Nolan Ryan. The Phillies lost the opener of this series yesterday, 4-1 and they have now lost 12 of their last 15 games but this is one of those games in which “reading between the lines” might just shake out the winner here.

The total for this game in 9. That’s massive when you consider that Philly’s offense is in reverse and this is a pitcher’s park and that the Yanks/Orioles total is 8½ in a hitter’s park. The total in this game cannot be rationalized in any way so we’re going to have to assume that the oddsmakers expect at least one of these offenses to go off here. Using that hypothetical, it would be unreasonable to expect the Fish to go off against a starter with such great upside. While we understand fully that Vincent Velazquez could get whacked, that’s not the point. The point is, for the oddsmakers to post a total like this, they have to expect one of these two pitchers will be off and expecting Velazquez to be off seems unreasonable because his stuff is so good.

When we look at the starters, we simply cannot ignore the tremendous form that Philadelphia’s Vincent Velazquez is in. With 52 K’s in 49 innings and a BB/K split of 9/30 over his last 27 frames, Velazquez is dealing it right now. Remember, this is a pitcher that turned heads with 16-K gem last season but endured a rough 2nd half and a September shutdown. Velasquez’s top-shelf strikeout rate comes with the full support of his swing and miss stuff. Vincent Velasquez owned an ugly 8.20 ERA and 1.67 WHIP after three starts, which has caused his ERA to look pretty ugly right now at 5.55 but this is a starter that is coming around again. The total here is what is screaming out that the Phillies are a live pooch tonight and we’re on it. 

Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks.