BEST LINES: Pinnacle +210 Bet365 +185 SportsInteraction +210 5DIMES +210

Posted at 11:00 AM EST.

4:05 PM EST. Clayton Richard is putting up some very respectable numbers. He has a BB/K split of 18/45 in 63 innings. Over his last five starts, Richard’s BB/K split was 8/25 in 32 innings so that’s trending the right way. His groundball rate is elite at 58%. Richard has battled his way back from 2013 left shoulder surgery and 2014 thoracic outlet syndrome surgery. The 33-year-old has emerged from those setbacks with a new throwing motion—a lower arm slot that is essentially side-arm—that has made his sinker even more effective. Richard’s extreme groundball % and those aforementioned seeds for potential control and K-rate gains make him very worthy at prices like this.

Stephen Strasburg is Stephen Strasburg, a pitcher that mows em down with the best of them with all the skills to back it up. However, from time to time, Strasburg blows up. He posted a 7.00 ERA or more in five of his last seven starts last year and fatigue has been partly blamed, which brings us to this start. It’s only May but Nats manager, Dusty Baker has been known to stay with his starters too long. Strasburg is coming off a game in which he threw 118 pitches. He did not throw that many pitches in a game all of last year. Four starts ago, Strasburg threw 119 pitches in a game against the Phillies. His next game out after the 119 pitches, he was tagged for five runs in 100 pitches over six innings. Over his last four starts leading into this one, Strasburg has thrown 119, 100, 108 and 118 pitches respectively. It’s only an arm Dusty! Furthermore, the Nationals bullpen is one of the worst in MLB. Of course the Nats can win here but what we know for sure is that there is value on the Padres because Richard has been solid and Dusty Baker has put Strasburg in a position to fail. Don’t be surprised if the Padres get to him and/or pull out a win here.

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