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Posted at 11:00 AM EST.

7:05 PM EST. We see no reason to jump off this Rockies’ train just yet. The Rocks have won the first two games of this series by scores of 8-1 and 8-2 respectively and the starter they’ll face here, Jeremy Hellickson, is the worst of them all. On paper, it doesn’t look that way, as Hellickson has a 5-1 record and 3.44 ERA after nine starts but it’s all smoke and mirrors. Hellickson has one good skill, which is control, as he’s walked just nine batters in 50 frames. Things do downhill from there. Hellickson’s 20 K’s in 50 innings is atrocious. His few strikeouts are supported by his 6% swing and miss rate. His groundball/fly-ball split of 34%/45% does not compensate for his lack of K’s. His career HR issue is a reminder that if luck reverse doesn’t get to him, allowing jacks will. . This can and likely will blow up quickly on Hellickson, especially against a team that cannot wait to get back to the park.

Tyler Chatwood’s numbers (5.09 ERA) are also misleading but his correction will be to the good. Chatwood has an elite 56% groundball rate, which is the third highest in the game among qualified starters. His 41 K’s in 53 frames is low when you consider his 12% swing and miss rate. More K’s per nine are on the way. Chatwood is now in his second season back from TJS and he’s getting stronger by the week. His fastball is up to 95 MPH, which is another positive sign moving forward. Perhaps most importantly, Chatwood will now face a team that has scored three runs over its last three games and that is using different lineups every day. The Phillies are reeling.

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