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Posted at 11:45 AM EST.

7:05 PM EST. Rick Porcello doesn't look like an upper-rotation starter after two months, at least on the surface (4.23 ERA, 1.41 WHIP) but his skills are outstanding and getting better. Porcello has 58 K’s in 55 innings with just 12 walks issued. His first-pitch strike rate is so good that it’s not even worth mentioning. Let’s just say that Porcello can throw a strike whenever the f**k he wants. His swing and miss rate is well above average at 12% and his xERA of 3.14 is better than his Cy Young year. Porcello has been hurt by an unlucky 42% hit rate and once that normalizes, his ERA will drop. Porcello is worth getting behind but this one is more about our continuous fade against Andrew Cashner.

What the general public is going to see is Andrew Cashner’s 2.45 ERA and an enticing price (in the +165 range) on the Rangers and think it’s a steal but it’s not. Cashner’s xERA of 6.28 points to his hideous skills. He has had immense hit % and strand % luck but just look at his skills…..just LOOK AT IT. He throws few first-pitch strikes, which contributes to plenty of walks. Cashner also generates very few swinging strikes, contributing to few strikeouts. With 21 walks and just 19 K’s in 40 innings, disasters are screaming out. To make matters worse, his velocity (92 mph) doesn’t reach 2012-15 levels (94-97 mph). He’s compensating by throwing fewer fastballs (57% vs 65-71% from 2013-2016) and more changeups (18%, 6.5%). This skillset should be avoided. With so many balls in play, with so many walks and with so much traffic, Cashner’s ERA will shoot up when his luck runs out. This will likely get ugly fast so run, don’t walk away from Cashner.

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