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Posted at 11:00 AM EST.

7:05 PM EST. This is a great opportunity to buy the Rockies in an evenly priced game. It’s in the pick-em range because Jared Eickhoff has 49 starts to his career with a very respectable 3.61 ERA while Colorado’s Jeff Hoffman is relatively unknown, having made just one start this year and just six starts last year with poor surface results. We’ll get back to the pitchers in a sec but even if we concede (which we are not) that Eickhoff is the superior pitcher here, Colorado is playing too good with no signs of letting up. The Rocks are 15-7 on the road. They’ve won five of their past seven and had it not been for a blown 7-1 lead against Cinci on Saturday, Colorado would have six wins in its past seven games. Manager Bud Black is handling the pitching staff with precision and has his team playing at a very high level while the Phillies are trending the other way with six losses in their last seven games. The Phillies are frustrated and they’re seeing BB gun pellets at the plate with an OPS of just .294 over their last 10 games, which is third worst in MLB over that span.

Eickhoff was solid in his first full season in MLB last year and with a BB/K split of 18/43 this year in 46 innings, he’s been pretty good this year too but there are reasons for concern. His command looks good on paper, but a weak 52% first-pitch strike rate suggests that good control won't last. Eickhoff had severe issues versus lefties last year and nothing has changed this year. That doesn’t bode well here, as the Rocks will send out four left-handed bats out of the eight everyday players and that does not include right-handed hitters Nolan Arenado, DJ LeMahieu or Mark Reynolds. Eichhoff’s fly-ball rate jumped in the 2nd half last year and has remained there (45%) there this year, thus putting him at risk for HR and at whims of hr/f. Eickhoff is worth keeping an eye on when taking back a decent tag at a pitcher’s park but there is not much upside here yet.

Jeff Hoffman was profiled in our MLB call-ups section. We’ll elaborate a little more. He went 0-4 with a 4.88 ERA in 31 innings for the Rocks last year. Hoffman’s overall control woes and gaudy OPS versus righties tanked his results but there is some intrigue to be sure. First, he has always posted solid strikeout numbers with his diverse arsenal that includes four velocity levels and a plus groundball rate. Velocity alone isn't enough as his fastball lacks command, but there is a strong foundation here. In seven innings over one start and one relief appearance, Hoffman has walked just two while whiffing 10 (!) Those 10 K’s have the support of his 17% swing and miss rate and now he’ll face a team that is gripping their bats a little too tightly. The general public will see Hoffman’s 5.40 ERA and not show much interest in Hoffman or the Rocks and what will be perceived as a tough game to call but we’ve pointed out Hoffman’s high ceiling and outstanding skills and will instantly jump in at this reduced price. You should too.

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