Chicago @ SEATTLE
Chicago +114 over SEATTLE

BEST LINES: Pinnacle  +114 Bet365  +105 SportsInteraction +110 5DIMES +110

Posted at 11:15 AM EST.

4:00 PM EST. Derek Holland is not the target here. The target here is to fade Seattle’s Chris Heston, whom we will get to in a minute. Holland is a risk for sure but he has poise, experience and he’s by far more reliable than Heston will ever be. While we’re not buying Holland’s early season success, some of it does have merit. Holland has changed up his pitch mix. He’s throwing a lot fewer sinkers (16%, compared to 59% the past few years) in exchange for a knuckle curve that he is using more frequently (25% in 2017 ---8% -11% 2014-16). He’s refining his game as he goes along and we’ll trust him to last longer than his mound opponent.

After pitching a no-hitter for the Giants in June of 2015, Chris Heston’s season started to unravel and he’s not been the same since. August and September of that year produced a 5.88 ERA and 1.69 WHIP over 11 starts. A brief, late-August sojourn to the minors didn’t help and thus, Heston was pegged for a long relief role in 2016. After four appearances in which he gave up six runs with a 3/6 K/BB ratio, the Giants returned Heston to the rotation—in Triple-A Sacramento. In December, the Giants traded Heston to the M’s for a player to be named later. These types of deals are more or less favors. It’s like saying, you take this guy off our hands and we owe you a solid or it’s the repayment of a similar deal between GM’s. The pitching starved Giants wanted nothing to do with Chris Heston.

Heston throws 86 MPH, which is down three ticks from the 89 MPH he was throwing back in 2015. He has appeared in one game since being recalled and it was as ugly as ugly can be. This is a desperation move by a desperate franchise that is not likely to work out well. Most importantly, this mostly career minor leaguer is not worthy of being the chalk on his best day.

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Our Pick

Chicago +114 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.28)

Chicago -103 over Boston