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Posted at 12:20 PM EST. 

8:15 PM EST. With a 2.80 ERA through seven starts, it's safe to say Eduardo Rodriguez is off on a better foot than in 2016 (8.59 ERA in his first six starts) but the market isn’t buying it just yet. We are because everything about his success is legit. He's missing plenty of bats thanks to a knockout changeup (26% swing and miss rate), which supports the early strikeout rate spike. Rodriguez has been plagued by shaky control in the past but he’s made massive strides this year with a 65% first-pitch strike rate. Rodriguez has a BB/K split of 15/42 in 35 innings. His groundball rate is only at 37% but it was 75% in his last start and 54% in the start prior. At 24, we’re seeing a young pitcher with prospect pedigree develop into an ace and although he’s not quite there just yet, he’s damn close. The window to get Rodriguez at a cheap price is closing quickly.

Lance Lynn posted a 3.66 xERA in 92 innings in the first half of 2015 before suffering a late-June forearm strain and ultimately undergoing Tommy John surgery in November 2015. He logged a mere 7 IP in the minors in 2016, but he has hit the ground running with a 2.75 ERA through his first seven starts of 2017. Is Lynn truly back? No. The underlying metrics do not fully support his 2017 performance so expect regression. Lynn has never been known for pinpoint control, and his control sub-indicators paint a gloomy picture. He has always been a solid strikeout source but his swing and miss rate of 9% suggests his strikeout rate is going to drop near or below the MLB average. Lynn has benefited from a fortuitous hit % and strand %. Note the wide disparity between his 2.75 ERA and 4.45 xERA—not just this year, but also 2014-15. Right-handed batters have had great difficulty against Lynn over the years but left-handers have given him fits and the Red Sox will have at least four very decent left-handed bats in there today. After doing a good job of keeping the ball in the yard throughout his career, home runs have plagued Lynn in 2017 (6 in 36 innings). The market will see Lynn’s strong surface stats (1.47 ERA at home and 2.75 overall) and eat them up. The metrics however, tell us that Lynn is the second best starter in this game and it’s not even close. The Cardinals are the second best team too.

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