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Posted at 11:10 AM EST. 

8:05 PM EST. We hope we’re not too late to this party, as the Yanks go for the sweep here and we like their chances. Jon Lester is 33 years old with over 2000 innings pitched in his career. He has two quality starts in six tries this year and one of those occurred against the punchless Pirates. Everything in Lester’s profile is trending the wrong way. He comes in with a horrible 1.49 WHIP.  His first-pitch strike rate is 54%. In his last start, Lester walked five batters. His fastball now tops off at 91.7 MPH, which is down another tick from last year. His ERA/xERA split is 3.86/4.91 but an 80% strand rate has prevented what should be more damage. A pitcher’s arm is not a machine. The wear and tear take a serious toll and while Lester is still capable of throwing a good game, all indications are that he’s struggling badly out there, which is why we look extensively under the hood.

Luis Severino’s average pitch velocity is 97 MPH. He’s also been one of the biggest early-season surprises so far in 2017. His stats have been top-tier (3.86 ERA, 0.95 WHIP) and so have his skills with 11 K’s/9, 1.3 BB’s/9 and a 56% groundball rate. Severino’s swinging strike rate has surged from 7.9% in 2016 to 12.8% so far in 2017. His ability to pound the lower part of the strike zone has helped drive up his whiffs and groundballs. In 33 innings, Severino has a BB/K split of 6/36 to go along with an xERA of 2.97. Oh, and the Yanks are winning and bashing again. Overlay.

NOTE: We are still committed to playing one baseball total daily and will pick it up again on Monday. On Sunday, there is not enough time to do the research. 

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