Posted at 12:00 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

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UFC 300 from Las Vegas, Nevada

Kayla Harrison to win by decisions (points) over Holly Holm

Best Odds: +150 at 888Sport

8:35 PM EST. Holly Holm, "the Preacher's Daughter," has a long and storied career and it's made her one of the UFC's most beloved fighters. Of course no one could forget her amazing KO victory over Ronda Rousey back in 2015, still one of the biggest upsets in UFC history and a victory that instantly put Holm on the map. A world champion boxer with real power and nasty precision, Holm should not be underrated or ignored against any opponent. Even at 42, Holm has proven she can step into the octagon and spar with the best, observed blatantly in her impressive five-round victory over Yana Santos in 2023. Showing even more maturation and balance in her skill set, Holm landed 4 takedowns in her most recent W, and her strikes were clearly more effective.

But if we're being honest with ourselves and with our readers, it's been a rocky road since her big moment in 2015. Holm has lost more bouts than she won since then (5-6), and if it wasn't for that shocking upset against Rousey we're left to wonder if she'd still be fighting at all. She always found a way to pick herself up and stay relevant, beating up on weaker foes along her 9-year UFC tenure, but elite bamtaweights have mostly dominated the American. Bethe Correia and Raquel Pennington are probably the most impressive victories on her resume besides Rousey, but a who's who of other women have challenged the notion that she's in the same class. Ketlen Vieria, Miesha Tate, Valentina Shevchenko, and of course the best women's champion of all time, Amanda Nunes, all overwhelmed Holm and showed why she shouldn't be a top contender for the bantamweight title.

Enter Kayla Harrison. The multi-time Olympic gold medalist in Judo is finally in the UFC, and at 33 she's ready to be the new face of the bantamweight division. We believe the hype. Obviously no woman wants to get into close quarters against Harrison, since the Judo expert is very likely to take down anyone who chooses to do so, but her arsenal is more versatile than just Judo. Fighting MMA professionally since 2018, Harrison has shown an array of new weapons to accrue a polished 16-1 record. Handing out losses in 6 bouts by way of TKO/KO and in 6 bouts by way of submission, there is no situation or position where her opponent is safe. And in case you couldn't tell by the ceremonial weigh-ins, Kayla is a legitimate powerhouse. She routinely out-muscles and overwhelms those before her, something that we imagine will happen in no-time against an aging fighter like Holm. 

At the faceoff last night, Harrison looked cool, calm, and collected. Holm looked sad, as if she knew she was about to retire after this bout. We're suggesting Harrison may not give her a choice. The Ohio-born gold medalist who now trains with American Top Team, one of the most respected gyms in the world, has expressed her intent to put on a memorable show at UFC 300. While Holm is typically patient and picks her spots, Harrison is explosive and always finds a way to spear her opponent into a takedown, which we expect to happen very early in this contest. To Holm's credit, she's proven to be incredibly slippery in her career and only lost by submission one time in 21 bouts. She's also been knocked out just one time, which is less surprising considering her world-renowned background in boxing. In any case, Saturday profiles to be a long night for Holm, one where she could be face-down on the canvas trying to slither her way out of submissions for a full 15 minutes. Harrison beats her up and wins by unanimous decision; for the price, that's very good value for a very likely scenario. 

Farley

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