Posted at 12:00 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

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UFC 300 from Las Vegas, Nevada

Xiaonan Yan to win by TKO/KO over Weili Zhang

Best Odds: +1300 at Pinnacle

11:45 PM EST. By now the whole MMA world knows of Weili Zhang, celebrated by Daniel Cormier and Joe Rogan and Jon Anik and virtually every talking head associated with the sport as one of the greatest champions of all time. We're not here to dispute that. Over her 11 year professional career, Zhang hasn't experienced much failure. In her very first bout back in 2013 she suffered a loss. From there she went on to accumulate an astounding 21 straight wins, 16 in lower brackets and 5 straight upon entering the UFC. As you're probably well-aware, only Rose Namajunas figured out how to outlast Zhang in the UFC, beating her in two straight fights in 2021. Since then the Chinese superstar surged right back into her winning ways, taking out legendary strawweight Joanna Jedrzejczyk with a hellacious spinning backfirst, choking out Carla Esparza, and outclassing Amanda Lemos for five rounds in a decision victory last August.

It's been 8 months since Zhang has squared off against another challenger for her title and even longer for the challenger, Xiaonan Yan, who hasn't fought since last May. And while UFC fans and oddsmakers aren't giving Yan much of a chance, we don't fire on our wagers here at SportsWagers unless there's an obvious flaw in the marketplace. That appears to be the case in the co-main event of UFC 300. 

Xiaonan Yan doesn't have the name recognition or allure of Zhang in popular culture, but that doesn't mean she can't win tonight's bout. For starters, both women are proudly Chinese, representing their country in a big spot on one of America's most popular sports tonight, something that will motivate and amplify the energy of both fighters. We live in a world where woke idiots hunt for people who stereotype others and designate too much meaning to one's ethnicity,  but that doesn't mean we need to capitulate here. Like Zhang, Yan is 115 pounds of muscle, and there's probably genetic or similar cultural factors that play into that. It also means she's probably more familiar with a fighter like Zhang, who typically presents as an enigma to most of her opponents. 

Fighting professionally since she was 18 years old (she's 34 now), Yan doesn't have many gaffes on her resume either. Carla Esparza caught her with superior wrestling skills and landed devastating elbows to give her a TKO win over "Fury," Yan's first loss in 11 years at that point, and in 2022 Marina Rodriguez eked by Yan in a split decision victory, one that we think could have gone either way. Marina's length was an issue for Xiaonan "Fury" Yan, but it won't be on Saturday against Zhang. Like the champion opposing her tonight, Yan has learned from mistakes of the recent past and is a more complete martial artist because of it. Following the loss to Esparza she dominated Mackenzie Dern, showing off a huge disparity of power as each significant strike landed with terrifying force and accuracy, painting Dern's face in a 5-round main event victory. In her last bout, she knocked out knock-out artist Jessica Andrade in the first round, dancing around the dangerous Brazilian and landing one precise jab after another before a massive right hook when Andrade came in too close. 

In recent fights, we couldn't help but notice how evolved Yan's movement looked and how eerily similar her fighting style was to Rose Namajunas, Zhang's kryptonite. Yan is taller and although their reach is identical, she will look longer and more lean than Weili, a stockier powerhouse. That's how Namajunas beat Weili; avoiding serious damage, picking her spots, and landing in uber-precise manner when she hit the strawweight legend.

Unlike Esparza, we doubt Zhang will choose to take this fight to the mat. Both women prefer to battle on their feet, strikers at heart, and let's face it - since Weili Zhang reached a level of fame that must inflate her ego at least a little bit. Zhang could easily overlook Yan and her striking ability, and as the 34-year old proved 8 times in her career, that's a mistake.

Xiaonan "Fury" Yan has incredible potential built from a long and storied fighting career that's now peaked at the UFC's biggest ever PPV event. While everyone is expecting a swift and easy victory for Zhang, we see value in the unexpected, and perhaps the biggest upset of the night just waiting to be cashed. Yan's punches are deadly accurate, perhaps more than the champ's, and we can't give up an opportunity to win a huge plus-money bet on a result that projects to be far more possible than oddsmakers want you to think.

Farley

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