Posted at 9:00 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle O21½ -112 BET365 O21½ -120 Sportsinteraction O21½ -120 888Sport O21½ -117

Elena Rybakina/Madison Keys over 21½

Best Odds: -112 at Pinnacle

1:15 PM EST. Madison Keys hasn’t seen much action in 2024 due to needing to have shoulder surgery in January, but she’s returned at the Miami open and in two matches has looked more like herself. After a quick out at Indian Wells, Keys hopes to get back to the same elite tennis she was playing in the middle of last season. Last year she made it as far as the quarterfinals at Wimbledon and the semifinals at the U.S. Open, defeating top-ranked women like Marketa Vondrousova and Jessica Pegula along the way.

Of course a Grand-Slam title is something Keys is really aspiring for. At 29, she has yet to reach the pinnacle, but we saw evidence of championship potential throughout the WTA tournaments in 2023. Now a wily veteran, this season presents as good as any for the power hitter to take the next step in her career. Standing in her way in Miami is one of fiercest competitors in all of women’s tennis, but one who often gets in her own way. 

The 24-year old Elene Rybakina has taken the tennis world by storm the last few years, standing tall as one of the only women who's conquered world's #1 Iga Swiatek in a Grand Slam final. Hoping to ascend back to her top form, Rybakina has mostly looked good in 2024, although it hasn't been without drama. The Kazakhstani beauty can show her immaturity in big moments, like in her last match in Miami against Taylor Townsend, who took Rybakina to the brink through three sets. Rybakina could be seen throwing her racket to the ground in anger late in the third set, upset over some of her gaffes, big moments when she sacrificed easy points. But drama hasn't been foreign to Rybakina, who sounded off during last year's WTA tour because of the inconvenient and often tireless schedule of some of the events. The upstart world's #4 isn't shy to let her feelings known, and that same fire is often how she ends up finding her edge late in matches, a focus that she always seems to regain when she needs to. It also creates some long, drawn out battles.

Which leads us to our handicap today. Rybakina and Keys are built similarly, both powerful in their own ways - Keys is more of a baseline runner, commanding with her forearm, while Rybakina aggressively attacks the net and seeks to end points early. Such reciprocity of power has brought some long affairs for Rybakina in particular, who seems to be trending towards a pattern we've seen from her many times before. Three of her last four matches have gone beyond four sets. Rybakina will allow her opponents back into contests because of emotional volatility and perfectionist attitude, something that an experienced player like Keys can take advantage of. And while we still expect the Kazakhstani to come out on top, we're confident that her American foe will give her all she can handle. These are the types of matches that can push Rybakina's patience and meddle, while Keys is typically stoic, consistent in her service game and has no issue prolonging every point. These two top-tier ladies have only faced three times before, with 2/3 going to Keys, but Rybakina secured the only Grand Slam win against her rival today. Expect another barnburner in Miami, and another longer match.

Farley

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